Trend 1: On the energy supply side, non-water new energy is developing rapidly. Compared with traditional fossil energy power generation, projects with better conditions will be economically and practically competitive after 5-10 years. If carbon price is considered Within this, competitiveness will be further enhanced. China's energy transformation will change the traditional replacement stage of replacing coal with oil and gas, and accelerate the entry of non-fossil energy to replace coal and oil. It is estimated that around 2035, non-fossil energy generation will account for about 50% of all power generation.

Trend 2: The functional nature of the power industry has been expanded from the traditional guarantee of national economic development and people's living standards to the quantity and quality requirements (commonness, basic) of power supply, to promote the greening of energy systems and further become the energy industry. The core of the subject and the circular economy.

Trend 3: In terms of energy and electricity demand, the proportion of energy in terminal energy consumption will continue to increase. It is expected that the proportion will be close to 40% by 2035 and over 50% by 2050, becoming the absolute main body of energy consumption.

At present, the proportion of electric energy in China's and developed countries' energy consumption is flat, and China is slightly higher than developed countries such as the United Kingdom. This phenomenon has led some experts to believe that the proportion of China's electric energy to terminal energy will not increase. The author believes that the proportion of natural gas in the terminal energy consumption in developed countries is about 25%, while China is around 7%. China plans to reach 10% in 2020 and 15% in 2030. The main factors constraining the development of natural gas are resources, prices, and the characteristics of carbon emissions relative to renewable energy. To improve the cleanliness of China's terminal energy consumption, it is necessary to simultaneously increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation and the proportion of electrical energy in terminal energy consumption.

Trend 4: With the advent of the new electrification era, there is still much room for power demand. We must not only solve the problem of insufficient power imbalance caused by the people's need for a better life, but also meet the needs of completing industrialization for electricity, and also meet the needs of future energy consumption with electricity as the mainstay. Electricity must be faster in the longer term. development of. From the 1978 to 2017 China's power consumption elasticity coefficient (the whole society's electricity consumption growth rate / GDP growth rate), the elasticity coefficient of each year is between 0 and 2, and the annual fluctuations are large, reflecting no Electricity consumption is a stable relationship of economic growth “barometer”; however, the 10-year sliding average elastic coefficient curve is between 0.8 and 1.2, and it exhibits regular fluctuations, reflecting both the “barometer” characteristics and also reflecting A periodic change in the coefficient of elasticity.

Although from the experience of developed countries, with the improvement of modernization, the coefficient of elasticity will be slightly less than 1, but China is a big country with a population of 1.4 billion. Although the proportion of electricity consumption in the secondary industry will continue to decline with the development of modernization process, However, it should be maintained at about 50% in the medium and long term. At the same time, considering the electrification of energy use in the future and the development of smart devices and the rapid development of electric vehicles, there will be more room for power applications. Especially when power is reversed from energy and matter, there is more room for power growth. In 2013, I wrote an article predicting that the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 7.5 trillion kWh in 2020. At that time, it was considered to be a highly outrageous forecast, but it seems likely to be the closest to reality. After analysis, I still maintain my forecast of electricity consumption for the whole society in 2013, that is, 11 trillion kWh in 2030, 14 trillion kWh in 2040, and 16 trillion kWh in 2050. This data does not include the electricity used by all future energy storage devices, otherwise the data will be even higher.

Trend 5: Power development constraints will undergo fundamental changes. The technical level of China's thermal power (coal) units is already advanced and even leading in the world. Pollution control technology is also advanced in the world. The impact of conventional pollution emissions on air quality is a traditional constraint. The biggest factor in development has changed. At the same time, the space for improving energy conversion efficiency and reducing water consumption is also greatly reduced. The power industry will gradually transition to a new stage of carbon energy conservation and energy conservation and emission reduction led by carbon emission reduction.

Under existing technical and economic conditions, conventional pollutant emissions and heavy metal emissions that may cause serious pollution, as well as other environmental problems, can be better resolved. The idea to further solve the pollution problem is whether the input and output are cost-effective (this cost includes environmental benefits). In general, it should be scientifically and reasonably based on environmental quality requirements (also in constant change), based on technical and economic conditions. Constraint, scientifically formulate emission standards, and scientifically carry out environmental governance. Excessive governance requirements and unconditional expansion of the scope of application of a certain technology, exerting unreasonable pressure on the enterprise, the side effects on the environment will increase or even outweigh the gains.

Some people think that there is still a big gap between China and developed countries in terms of energy consumption per unit of GDP. However, this gap has little room for energy and energy conservation in the field of energy and electric power production, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, etc., reducing this composite index. Value, we must work hard on the "denominator", that is, work hard on the economic structure, rather than continue to increase investment in the implementation of energy-saving transformation.

Trend 6: The power production and transportation layout is optimized by a wide range of resources (such as West to East), and the transition to a large-scale resource optimization configuration and distributed, local balance, and then to the local balance, but Wide-ranging optimal configuration of clean low-carbon electricity is still an important choice for China's energy strategic security and comprehensive utilization of resources.

The development of the secondary industry is still the largest electricity use in China in the future, and the layout of the secondary industry is not only constrained by energy demand, but also by other resources and regions. At the same time, due to the characteristics of China's clean energy distribution, and the future conversion between electric energy and other energy sources (such as hydrogen energy) and optimization with other resources, it also needs a large range of resources to optimize the ability to configure electricity.

Trend 7: The power system operation mode has undergone fundamental changes. As the energy and power transformation continues to advance, the integration of the energy side, power production and supply side, and power demand side continues to increase, resulting in new energy generation and distribution. The power system, energy storage and storage, and integrated energy services are expanding. Power Demand Side Management (DSM) will gradually transition to the Demand Response (DR) phase and then transition to the supply and demand coupling phase. In the supply and demand coupling stage, non-water renewable energy power generation will become the main body of electricity and electricity, and together with nuclear power, large-scale hydropower, gas and electricity, coal power, distributed power, and electricity storage, will constitute a diversified new Chinese power system.

In the traditional power management mode, the institutional background is the planned economy or the planning management. The electricity price is completely controlled by the government to the key control, and the technical background is gradually developed to the stage of automation and informationization. In the supply and demand coupling stage, the institutional background will be based on the market economy. Except for a small part of the electricity price, which is controlled by the government, it is basically determined by the market, and the technical background has entered the “cloud and big things shifting wisdom” (cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things). , mobile internet, smart city) stage.

Trend 8: Energy storage and storage determines the process and form of energy and power system transformation. Energy storage will be developed rapidly and on a large scale in the grid side, power generation side and user side. It will ensure the stability of the power system, promote the transformation of energy and low carbon, and promote Low-carbon development in the whole society will play a key role.

The development of energy storage not only solves the problems of renewable energy power generation, Internet access and consumption, but also plays an important role in improving the reliability and economic operation of nuclear power and coal-fired power plants. The utilization hours of coal-fired power plants can reach 6000 hours. This further reduces the installed capacity of coal power, or promotes the acceleration of the elimination of high-carbon emissions of thermal power units. The rapid development of a variety of energy storage, due to the alternative, requires the government departments and enterprises to rationally consider the flexibility of thermal power units, to prevent a wide range of "one size fits all", thereby reducing the high efficiency of the unit.

Due to the rapid discharge characteristics of the power battery, its rapid development will greatly improve the regulation performance and power quality of the power grid. When there is a large-scale power battery storage for power grid regulation, the operation mode of the power grid system and the entire power system is promoted. Change will have an essential impact.

Trend 9: Electric vehicles will continue to develop rapidly and form deep interaction with power systems, especially the interactive advancement of smart electric vehicles with new batteries and charging facilities, which will promote major changes in social lifestyles and further accelerate the supply of electricity to power systems. The direction of coupling "evolves."

Trend 10: The power system will continue to evolve. The power system will be based on the smart grid around 2025; the energy grid-based energy system will be based on the smart grid around 2035; it will be with other companies around 2050. A comprehensive system of high integration of energy, matter, transportation and information. The new era of electrification will become the main symbol of the new era.